Progress in automatic use of Cellular and Wi-Fi

June 16, 2013 at 8:59 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment
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The greatly-needed ability to seamlessly use Wi-Fi (when available) from your smartphone or tablet took a big step forward to reality this week when Apple announced that they will support the Wi-Fi Hostpot 2.0 standard in iOS 7. What does that mean? Apple devices updated to iOS 7 will allow your mobile Service Provider to let your device securely use selected Wi-Fi hotspots, which can mean lower costs and higher throughput for you.

Hotspot 2.0 delivers the critical features that Service Providers and their Subscribers want:

  • Automatic (no user action required, transparent operation)
  • Secure (user data is safe, as is your subscriber identity)
  • Interoperable (works with existing 3G/4G cellular networks)

Mobile Operators have been working hard to enable their subscribers to “roam” onto Wi-Fi when available, to offload the cellular network (reducing costs). The standard that they have developed is called Wi-Fi Hotspot 2.0 (kinda rolls off your tongue, doesn’t it?). Like any new service, to deliver it you need support of devices as well as the network. Since nearly all smartphones and tablets are delivered by Apple (iOS) and Google (Android), we must have those vendors support the standard. Now Apple will deliver in the Fall of 2013 with iOS 7, and we expect the next version of Android, Key Lime Pie, will similarly support the standard by YE2013.

With this support, we can expect Operators to start to deliver seamless roaming using Wi-Fi in-country and internationally, which can bring big benefits to you.


How to satisfy our exponential demand for Mobile Internet?

August 29, 2012 at 10:58 am | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment
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Check out the excellent road map from Qualcomm, “1000X Mobile Data Challenge,” that explains how we can keep up with the exponentially demand for Mobile Internet. Since the introduction of the iPhone, we’ve seen consumer use exploding, with no end in sight. Globally, we observe that each year requires that we deliver 2X the data capacity than the previous year.

But you say, “1,000X capacity?! Really!!?” Actually, yes. Here’s why:

Q: Starting with a capacity of 1, and if you double that each year, then how many years until you reach 100? How many more years until you reach 1,000?

A: 6 years to reach 100, and another 4 years to reach 1,000.

So, at this rate of growth, we’ll reach 1,000 mobile Internet capacity in a decade

So check out the QUALCOMM webinar series to understand some of the techniques that we can use to satisfy this demand. If you’re going to be around for another decade, you’ll find it a worthwhile perspective. The first webinar in the series overviews the problem and solutions, and is available for replay at “The 100x Mobile Data Challenge.”

P.S. This reminds me of the fable of the Inventor of the Chessboard and his Reward. When the Inventor was asked by the delighted Ruler to name his reward, he asked for a single grain of rice on the first square, two grains on the second, four on the third square, …  On the 64th square of the chessboard there would be 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (263) grains of rice!

How will Mobile Operators use Wi-Fi: First Offload, then Roaming

March 14, 2012 at 6:44 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment
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Just like the early days of delivering any network, the initial focus is to (1) Build your network for your subscribers, in your defined market, and then (2) Broaden your footprint, by establish a large roaming footprint. (It can be argued if this is the correct order, since you can successfully be a Service Provider without building your own network, but this is definitely the order that you choose once you decide to build your own network.)

As Mobile Operators extend their networks to include Wi-Fi, they are initially (1) Building in-market Wi-Fi for “Data Offload”, and then they will establish (2) Roaming, to get more benefit where they have not (yet) built it.

Wi-Fi Data Offload   –>  Wi-Fi Roaming
In market                       Out of market

Most Operators are rushing to Build, and then the focus will then be to Roam.

Wi-Fi’s bright future: Works like Cellular, Works with Cellular

March 14, 2012 at 6:21 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment
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Q: Do you ever notice when your mobile phone “roams” into other cellular networks? No? Good!
Imagine Wi-Fi working the same way, as a seamless extension of your cellular service.

Seamless Cellular + Wi-Fi will become the norm. You may be already enjoying this, if you are served by one of the leading Operators that have been delivering this, in advance of industry standards. In the U.S., if you have an iPhone from AT&T, you have been enjoying the automatic use of over 20,000 Wi-Fi hotspots for years without ever thinking about it. In Japan, KDDI delivered a similar solution in 2011 with their metro Wi-Fi networks complimenting their cellular service. KDDI’s “au Wi-Fi SPOT Service” gives Subscribers “Instant On, No-Touch Access” with over 100,000 hotspots planned throughout Japan.

Now that the industry has collaborated to create a standard to make Wi-Fi a seamless extension of your cellular service, it will be rapidly adopted by many Operators. The initial standards are ready, and products are already being delivered (from handsets to Wi-Fi networks to inter-carrier roaming services to Mobile networks). Cisco already has delivered compliant products to Operators (see “Cisco Next-Generation Hotspot Technology Delivers Seamless Mobile Experiences“), including a successful Trial with PCCW in 2011 (see “PCCW mobile Becomes World’s First Operator to Successfully Complete Commercial Next Generation Wi-Fi Hotspot Trial“).

Multiple organizations have collaborated to deliver Cellular roaming onto Wi-Fi: Where the device connects to the Wi-Fi network, the technical standards are produced by the Wi-Fi Alliance, and they refer to these features as “Hotspot 2.0”, while the business networking solutions are produced by the Wireless Broadband Alliance, and and they refer to these features as “Next Generation Hotspot.” To coordinate this solution with the mobile networks, the WBA is working with the GSM Association to incorporate the standards into their reference documents.

Wi-Fi Grows Up, an looks like Cellular

Here’s how Wi-Fi is growing up to deliver the same, seamless use that you enjoy on cellular networks: (for more, see Sue Rudd’s recent report, “WiFi Hotspots will be Small Cells in Mobile Broadband Networks by 2015” and a summary can be downloaded here)

This will give Subscribers all the benefits of Wi-Fi plus the ease of use of Cellular.

Q: Will I pay more to use Wi-Fi?
A: No. You will not pay more to use Wi-Fi within your own country/market. Currently, Operators are not charging subscribers for use of Wi-Fi, as it is not a separate subscription or feature, but a benefit available to all data users. Operators see this is a competitive advantage, to draw users to their networks, since Subscribers have increasing desired that Operators provide this service. Subscribers have been manually connecting to Wi-Fi, and relish the automated use of Wi-Fi (ADD reference to Movidia study).

Q: Can I use Wi-Fi to reduce the cost of International Roaming?
A: Yes. Initially, Wi-Fi is being deployed as an extension of the cellular coverage in your market (“Data Offload”). Subsequently, Operators will make roaming deals to enable you to similarly use Wi-Fi when you travel internationally, which should make using data far less costly.

Wi-Fi is our Primary Wireless network

March 13, 2012 at 9:21 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment
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Wi-Fi is our primary network for connecting laptops, smartphones and tablets. You might be surprised to realize that Wi-Fi carries far more traffic than all 3G and 4G mobile networks combined, and will continue to do so in the future. Although mobile networks provides us with an umbrella of coverage, we tend to consume data when we are stationary, and typically Wi-Fi is available as our preferred choice of connection. Even as mobile networks expand their wide-area data capacity, Wi-Fi will expand its role as a compliment to cellular.

Wi-Fi is our Primary wireless connection to the Internet [Cisco VNI

Why? It is more efficient for us to use a nearby radio connection than one far away. Accordingly, it is more efficient for us to connect to a Local Area Network (Wi-Fi) than a Wide Area Network (3G or 4G Cellular). Mobile Operators increasingly speak of moving the network “closer to you,” and Wi-Fi is usually just a few meters away, which is nearly optimal. Mobile Operators want to deliver the best service to you, and so they are working to deliver small cells closer to you, and to take advantage of Wi-Fi (where it is available) that is even closer to you. Think about how much you use Wi-Fi today–in the house, in the office–and consider how much more traffic is carried over Wi-Fi than cellular. Why? Cost and Speed.

Although cellular is the ubiquitous network that we can (nearly) always count on, Wi-Fi is the preferred network that we use to carry our network through the Fixed Internet. Although Wi-Fi had humble beginnings (see reminiscing about the early move by Steve Jobs to introduce Wi-Fi into Apple laptops) to replace Ethernet cables, it has become our default network.

Of the different ways that we can connect to the Internet, Wi-Fi will carry an increasing percentage of mobile data: 50% more than Cellular in 2015 [per Juniper forecast]. Femtocells, in contrast, are not expected to play a large role. In fact, Wi-Fi will be the primary way for us to connect to the Internet, exceeding wired (Ethernet) connections (Cisco estimates that Wi-Fi is the leading connection in 2015, according to their annual VNI study).

In 2015, Wi-Fi will still carry more data  traffic than Cellular [Nitin Bhas, Juniper Research

The original role of the femtocell, as “home base station,” has not been found as attractive as expected, especially due to interference with other cells that use the same spectrum. Subsequently, the femtocell technology has been repurposed into small cells (the Femto Forum renamed themselves as the Small Cell Forumthis February). Accordingly, the amount of traffic carrier by Femtocells is modest (although Small Cells are increasingly important and counted in the traffic carried by the Cellular network).

Wi-Fi will grow as a compliment to cellular Mobile networks, as Wi-Fi matures and acquires the best attributes of cellular: automatic, seamless, and secure (see “Wi-Fi, as easy to use as 3G mobile data“). Mobile Network Operators now recognize and embrace Wi-Fi for its benefits: Cost, Capacity, Coverage, Customer Experience. Mobile Operators particularly value Wi-Fi for its low Cost and high Capacity, as Mobile networks are simply unable to keep up with the demand (Capacity), and Operators are challenged to maintain the profitability as Revenue (for a unit of data) is falling faster than Cost (as Sue Rudd, of Strategy Analytics, has expertly deduced and illustrated), which reduces and eventually threatens profitability. Wi-Fi will help Operators to reduce their cost, and maintain the profitability of Mobile Internet for cellular operators

Mobile Operator revenues diminishing, what to do?

March 9, 2012 at 6:09 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment
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Unfortunately for many mobile Operators, their revenues are shrinking: Classic voice is commoditized, and Text has become a diminished, all-you-can eat charge. Analysis forecasts that mobile revenues in Western Europe will not increase until 2014, Analysis forecasts (see figure, illustrating negative growth rates forecast). The US market is similarly seeing mobile revenues decrease (see figure, illustrating reducing Voice and Test ARPU, with growing Data ARPU). The challenge is to increase data revenues, quickly.

Retail revenues shrinking in EU

Retail revenues declining in U.S.

Q: What to do to boost revenues?
A: Make mobile data services mainstream (“Crossing the Chasm”). Also, enhance the value of existing services, to bring in new customers.

Taking data services mainstream

Mobile broadband data is being used by a fraction of the subscriber base, with a lot of growth available. Subscribers are overwhelmingly buying smartphones, but many do not subscribe to a mobile data plan. AT&T notes that “56 percent of all smartphone subscribers are on tiered data plans” [4Q2011 Earnings summary]. Adoption of mobile broadband is less than 50% of the subscriber base in developed countries. Growth rates for adoption of mobile data are moderate (20% more data subscribers in Europe, YoY growth), undoubtedly owing to the poor economy. Mobile data is on the verge of becoming a mainstream service, and Operators urgently need to make it easy for new users to get on board.

As an example of making data a mainstream service, T-Mobile (US) is doing a great job of making data services affordable. To encourage new users to “Try it, you’ll like it,” they build a little data into every plan. Also, they allow subscribers to use it at affordable rates without committing to a contract–removing hurdles to the use of mobile data, and making it easy for new users to add this service without breaking the piggy bank. Further, you are not penalized if you use more than you planned: “T-Mobile is the only nation-wide network with overage-free mobile broadband plans.” And you can use all of your services FREE over Wi-Fi (“Wi-Fi Calling”), so that if you have Wi-Fi, you have service, anywhere on the planet. Voice, text, video, e-mail … all free over Wi-Fi.

Enhancing the value of existing services

Orange is enhancing their existing voice service with an offering that should bring in new subs: HD Voice. Since Orange is leading the pack with HD Voice, and the service delivers enhanced voice when both parties have an HD-compatible phone, then once someone experiences this service, they will want all of their friends and family to have the service, too … causing them to flock to Orange. If HD Voice were to be made available on the iPhone 5, say, it could create a surge of influential customers that (a) quickly enjoy the service with a large percentage of others, and then (b) evangelize the benefits of the service to others.

Similarly, other Operators are working to add Presence info to your Address Book and communications apps. Imagine how much more efficient you would be in communicating on your mobile device if you knew whether your friend was Available or Busy, or whether they preferred that you contact them via IM/Text/Voice/Video. Several, leading Operators are delivering RCS (Rich Communication Suite) services to the market, and plan to succeed in making your communications easier and more fun. The benefits could be similar to the example of HD Voice, above: bringing in more subscribers to your enhanced offerings of classic, mobile services.

Next-Generation Hotspot: Maintaining Profitability of Mobile Data Services

September 25, 2011 at 2:47 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment
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To clarify the importance of Wi-Fi for Mobile Operators, this White Paper gathers the perspectives of a leading analyst, Service provider, and Wi-Fi equipment manufacturer. We prepared it on behalf of the Wireless Broadband Alliance (WBA), but it is available at several sites, including the contributors and the WBA. Please read it here and share your comments!

To develop the Business Case for Mobile Operator use of Wi-Fi, we are expanding this paper to include the perspectives of leading Mobile Operators, as a task within the WBA.

Wi-Fi, as easy to use as 3G mobile data

April 6, 2011 at 1:50 am | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment
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Although Wi-Fi was in bad shape (as Phil Kendall recently noted), it looks like monetization of Wi-Fi may have taken a turn for the better with the recent introduction of the Hotspot 2.0 spec, announced at GSM Mobile World Congress and CTIA (Wireless Broadband Alliance, Wi-Fi Alliance). Hotspot 2.0 promises to make Wi-Fi as easy to use as 3G–secure and simple. And that is just what has been missing.

With Operators looking for ways to reduce their cost/bit and to serve the growing data capacity demands, Wi-Fi is a potentially attractive solution … if only it can be made simple (as Hotspot 2.0 offers). Smartphones, laptops and tablets are all likely candidates to benefit from increasing offload of data to Wi-Fi.

For more details, check out the excellent Cisco White Paper, “The Future of Hotspots” (they led the Hotspot 2.0 Task Force).

Problem: Data Traffic Growing Faster Than Revenues

February 26, 2009 at 4:00 am | Posted in Uncategorized | 9 Comments
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Without a doubt, there is a growing problem of mobile data consumption vs. revenue: perhaps 100X growth of aggregate data vs. 2X growth of revenue (in the next 5 years). This growth in data consumption is reflected in operators’ measurements as well as analysts’ forecasts, and this trend is based on clear drivers that we can observe today. Operators recognize this threat to future Mobile Internet service profitability, and therefore Mobile Network Operator (MNO) profitability (as revenues shift inexorably from voice to data revenues).


Growth is Real, and Exploding

The rapid growth of data consumption is real, has been observed by many operators. Vodafone, for example, exemplifies the rapid growth in the last, two years, from a trickle to a volume that exceeds their voice traffic in European markets that they serve (see figure). This growth has been driven by many factors, including flat-rate and modestly-priced data plans.


Over time, this becomes problematic, as forecasts anticipate 100X traffic levels that threaten to overwhelm current networks. Current forecasts-based on observed MNO data traffic growth-anticipate at least a 2X growth per year over the next 5 years [Cisco, 2008], and perhaps growth of 300X to 500X over 10 years (from 2007-2017) [3Gamericas, 2008].  A recent Cisco study combined actual MNO traffic with analysts’ forecasts for mobile internet growth, and concluded that this trend would continue for at least the 5-year planning horizon, with data traffic more than doubling each year (see figure).


An independent assessment came to the same conclusion (data traffic doubling each year), while tracking the growth over a longer time frame (10 years, 2007-2018).  The 3GAmericas study expects this trend to continue through 2018 (based on observed traffic and trends in service usage), as illustrated below.


Recent traffic increases have exceeded this estimate: “six to fourteen times more data is being used on mobile broadband networks today than in the previous year.” Frost & Sullivan recently reported [April 2009] – with “average users downloading more than 5GB per month.”

Isn’t Increasing Data Use “A Good Problem to Have”?

Yes, increasing consumption of data services is a good problem to have … up to a point.  Operators have been trying for a decade to entice subscribers with data services, recognizing that this is their future, as voice usage eventually reaches a peak and pricing becomes commoditized. However, there is a dark side that is emerging: the rapid growth of data consumption is increasingly a concern to the degree that is expands faster than revenues; if costs increase without a similar increase in revenues, then the business is at risk, and something must be done to reduce overall costs to maintain profitability.  Essentially, “data traffic is growing much faster than data revenues,” [Mike Roberts, Informa, 6/2008]

Why Is Data Consumption Rapidly Increasing?

Data growth is expanding due to (a) broad adoption of data services by subs (espec. on flat data plans that encourage use), (b) better devices (such as the iPhone and imitators), and (c) more, attractive data services (such as YouTube, Location-Based Services, Social networking, IM, Mobile TV, and thousands of downloadable Apps).

A) More Subscribers on Mobile Internet Data Plans
Developed markets will easily see 40% of subscribers on a data plan by 2012, most on a “Flat Rate” plan that encourages use (without a penalty of incremental cost for incremental use) [Forrester, 2008].  This trend is so strong that mobile Internet subscribers are expected to outnumber fixed Internet subscribers in 2011 (see figure).


B) More Capable Internet Devices
“The iPhone.” Need I say more? OK, the IPhone has redefined how subscribers can use the mobile Internet, and established that the masses can and will browse, use Location-Based Services, watch YouTube video, download and install applications, and more. iPhone users consume many times more data than average consumers, even those with media capabilities (see figure). Consequently, everyone is rushing to achieve similar success, and more. The network effect is a radical leap in data consumption by End Users-exactly what the MNOs desired, as this establishes that consumers will use data services, if they are simple, fun, and useful. Smartphone users consume car more data than the average subscriber. And smartphones are becoming a common purchase of consumers (although business users led the adoption). By 2011, 30% of the handsets sold in developed markets will be smartphones [Gartner, 2008].

C) More Services Used
End Users are consuming more services as a result of better devices and a wider variety of applications. Apple’s App Store, for example, has defined a model of data services on demand that is widely appealing, with 500 M downloads in less than a year of operation [Apple, 2008], establishing that there is a large market for data services [Piper Jaffray, 2008].


Summary: Data Growth Based on Strong Fundamentals

MNOs have a serious problem on their hand-data consumption growing out of control and out of synch with revenues-that is based on strong fundamentals. We see it already in current use, and the future certainly holds far greater growth due to all of the drivers: more data subscribers, flat rate plans, more capable devices, and more attractive services. We will discuss this business problem in greater depth in the next section, “100X Data Growth vs. 2X Revenue Growth.”

100X Data Growth vs. 2X Revenue Growth

February 26, 2009 at 3:59 am | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment
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Having established that data traffic is expanding rapidly (see the previous post, Data Traffic Growing Faster Than Revenues) for fundamental, long-term reasons, let’s explore the central business problem: high growth in costs vs. modest revenue growth.

MNOs have turned to data services for revenue growth, recognizing that End Users have largely satisfied their demand for voice communication. As prices fell for a voice minute of use (just as with Long Distance before that), subscribers could afford to purchase more minutes for their dollar, but at a point their demand was sated and they had no desire to consume more.  SMS has certainly provided an unexpectedly large increase in data use, but that is, like voice, largely played out. What next? Since 2001, with the introduction of the Mobile Internet, MNOs have focused on increasing revenue (APRU) by creating attractive data services: browsing, information, entertainment, and new communication services. Now, almost 10 years later, it appears that they have succeeded … and their problem has become, ironically, too much demand.

Data traffic is growing out of pace with revenues. Data is growing at a torrid pace since the introduction of high-speed and high-capacity, 3G networks a few years ago. Many operators have reported aggregate increases in data traffic far exceeding the 100% growth rate that is anticipated for the next 5 years. Revenue has certainly increased significantly, but only incrementally. No consumer is willing to pay 10X their current monthly bill, so the revenue increase is measured in a fractional increase of the current revenue, not multiples, and certainly not tens or hundreds of multiples.

The Danger of Flat-Rate (Unlimited) Service Plans

The main culprit in unrestrained usage is unrestrained service plans: flat rate pricing. Although (like prepaid) these plans are simple for subscribers to understand, and very attractive in avoiding unpleasant surprises, they invite unrestrained use with no marginal revenues. Although consumers are attracted to unlimited plans, the operator is then stuck with a subscriber that is not generating any additional revenue. Eventually, flat rate plans will have to go, or at least be modified and restricted to manage costs and maintain profitability. We can already see caps emerging in mature, fixed, broadband networks, where the access cost is quite low (relative to mobile Internet): Comcast (in the U.S.) has imposed usage caps on high-speed Cable Internet service customers to limit excessive use and eliminate abuse, and ensure that costs do not balloon, so that service and pricing is maintained for normal customers. Flat-rate pricing is unsustainable, leading to unrestrained usage with no incremental compensation.

Flat-rate plans have been very popular with subscribers; Operators have successfully employed flat-rate plans to sign up a wave of new users to 3G data plans.

  • Significant adoption:
    “Vodafone says it signed up 2 million consumer customers to its flat-rate mobile Internet plans in 2007.” [“Mobile traffic boom to revive base station market, Mike Roberts, Informa, 7 July 2008]
  • Mobile Internet is included:
    Vodafone UK includes access to the internet and email on their mobile as an integral part of the monthly price plan. “Every plan will automatically include internet access”(Note: for post-paid customers, not pre-paid) [“Unlimited Internet on New Voda Plans,” Mobile Business Magazine, 7 May 2008]
  • Many operators employing Flat-rate Data Plans:
    “The best examples for flat, mobile broadband offerings can be found in the Austrian market. T-Mobile has launched Fairclick for €25 which includes 10GB data volume on HSDPA. When it comes to content flat fee, again H3G sets currently the top benchmarks. The X-Series which has been launched in the European H3G countries as well as in Australia and Hong Kong, comprises of a wide range of value added services, such as unlimited instant messaging, Skype calls, web surfing and mobile TV via Slingbox streaming.” [Arthur D Little “The World is Becoming Flat,” Technology & Media INSIGHT, 2008]

Whither Flat-Rate Plans?
Flat-rate plans have proven very popular with subscribers, and so they will be difficult for Operators to give up. I suspect that they will be slowly morphed and restricted to allow Operators to charge for some services, especially content and bandwidth-intensive services such as Mobile TV, or person-person video.

Data Revenue Doubling (over 5 years)

Now that the data services are becoming more popular, operators are striving for significant increases in ARPU-perhaps a doubling of average revenue per customer-as demonstrated by the excellent revenue/user of iPhone subscribers. Forecasts suggest that MNOs may see roughly a doubling in mobile data revenues over the next 5 years:

  • “Global mobile data revenues will increase 77% from 2007 to 2012” [Informa, 2008]
    “The traffic boom will be driven by a dramatic increase in the use of advanced applications such as mobile browsing and video-for example mobile video traffic will grow more than thirty-fold by 2012, according to Mobile Networks Forecasts.” [“Mobile traffic boom to revive base station market, Mike Roberts, Informa, 7 July 2008] Annual data services will more than double from $148 billion dollars in 2007 to $347 billion dollars in 2013 [Informa Telecoms & Media, 2008].
  • “Mobile data revenue will double by 2012” [Pyramid, 2008]
    “By our estimates, mobile data will account for 29% of the global mobile service revenue in 2012, up from 19% in 2007. Clearly, the mobile data opportunity is soaring: the 2007 mobile data revenue was more than double what it was in 2004, and we expect it to double again to US$300bn by 2012.” … and 20% of this is SMS in developed markets, 45% in Emerging markets. [“Mobile data revenue will double by 2012,” Dan Locke, Analyst Insight, Pyramid, 4/2008]

Note that this increase in revenue is largely due to IP-based services, not SMS (see figure). “In 2012, in emerging markets, SMS will still comprise 45% of data ARPS in contrast to less than a quarter in developed markets.”


Operator Solution: Cut Costs

Rampant data use without commensurate compensation? Better cut the cost of the data use, right? That’s exactly what is happening. Operators are looking to reduce the cost of delivering each bit. This problem will not be solved with a single, silver bullet, but will require cost efficiencies in many areas, which is the topic of our next analysis: “Solutions for Expanding Data Usage.”

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